优质肉鸡繁育体系的效益评估

近十多年来，我国优质肉鸡的生产方兴未艾，许多育种公司和科研院所不断推出新品系。为充分发挥新品系的遗传潜力，探求优质肉鸡最佳的繁育生产模式具有重要意义。由于不同的品系及其杂种后代在不同的性状上各有优缺点，很难用生产性能进行直接比较，而适合用育种规划的方法通过经济学指标进行评价。系统分析通过把生产系统抽象概念化并用数学手段模型化的方法，     

美系杜洛克种猪体尺、体重测定与体型评定研究

统计分析了2001年引进的新美系杜洛克种猪及繁殖后代在6月龄、12月龄、24月龄和36月龄四个阶段的体尺、体重数据，结合品种特征、体型外貌总结研究出杜洛克种猪的百分制评分及等级标准。     

137Cs示踪法在东北松嫩平原土壤侵蚀定量评价中的应用

根据不同退化程度草原和不同开垦年限农田土壤137Cs放射强度分析结果表明:与轻度退化草原相比,中度退化和重度退化中的137Cs放射强度分别下降了21%和52%。草原土壤开垦后,137Cs放射强度明显下降,开垦7年、15年、33年后,137Cs的放射强度分别只有轻度退化草原的37%、31%和26%。相关分析表明,伴随着土壤侵蚀的发生,土壤有机质含量、全N含量以及阳离子交换量下降。137Cs放射强度与土壤有机碳、土壤全N、交换性K和阳离子交换量呈极显著的正相关。     

基于食物安全视角的我国畜产食品进口依赖性风险评价

新时期下,保障我国畜产食品供给安全是保障我国食物安全的重要内容之一,而“适度进口”是保障我国畜产食品供给安全的重要途径之一。如何才算“适度进口”,需对畜产食品进口的相关风险进行分析方可评判。运用进口依赖性评价模型对我国猪肉、鸡肉、羊肉、牛肉、鲜牛奶的进口依赖性风险进行分析发现,上述5种畜产食品均存在进口依赖性风险。其中,猪肉的风险来自美国、德国、丹麦、西班牙和加拿大;鸡肉的风险来自美国、巴西、阿根廷和波兰;羊肉的风险来自澳大利亚、新西兰和乌拉圭;牛肉的风险来自乌拉圭、澳大利亚、新西兰、阿根廷和加拿大;鲜牛奶的风险来自德国、法国、新西兰和澳大利亚。为降低我国畜产食品进口依赖性风险,短期内应采取畜产食品进口市场多元化策略以及用进口饲草料替代进口畜产食品的进口方式;长期应在保障“口粮安全”的前提下,调整农业结构,大力发展草地农业,减少对国际市场的依赖性。     

Single step genomic evaluation for female fertility in Nordic Red dairy cattle

Joint Nordic (Denmark, Finland, Sweden) genetic evaluation of female fertility is currently based on the multiple trait multilactation animal model (BLUP). Here, single step genomic model (ssGBLUP) was applied for the Nordic Red dairy cattle fertility evaluation. The 11 traits comprised of nonreturn rate and days from first to last insemination in heifers and first three parities, and days from calving to first insemination in the first three parities. Traits had low heritabilities (0.015–0.04), but moderately high genetic correlations between the parities (0.60–0.88). Phenotypic data included 4,226,715 animals with records and pedigree 5,445,392 animals. Unknown parents were assigned into 332 phantom parent groups (PPG). In mixed model equations animals were associated with PPG effects through the pedigree or both the pedigree and genomic information. Genotype information of 46,914 SNPs was available for 33,969 animals in the pedigree. When PPG used pedigree information only, BLUP converged after 2,420 iterations whereas the ssGBLUP evaluation needed over ten thousand iterations. When the PPG effects were solved accounting both the pedigree and the genomic information, the ssGBLUP model converged after 2,406 iterations. Also, with the latter model breeding values by ssGBLUP and BLUP became more consistent and genetic trends followed each other well. Models were validated using forward prediction of the young bulls. Reliabilities and variance inflation of predicted genomic breeding values (values for parent averages in brackets) for the 11 traits ranged 0.22–0.31 (0.10–0.27) and 0.81–0.95 (0.83–1.06), respectively. The ssGBLUP model gave always higher validation reliabilities than BLUP, but largest increases were for the cow fertility traits.     

The use of ultrasonography in the reproductive evaluation of boars

The objective was to study the use of ultrasound as a complementary test in the breeding soundness evaluation in male pigs and study the pattern of echogenicity of the testicular parenchyma in boars of different racial groups. Twenty‐six adult boars from four different racial groups were used, 10 from the Piau breed (group 1), four from the commercial and finishing group (group 2), six Pietrain breed (group 3) and six from the Duroc breed (group 4). All animals were evaluated for breeding soundness evaluation and the ultrasound examination of the testicles. The groups of animals that were evaluated showed no difference in the main semen parameters that were evaluated, except for the sperm volume, concentration of the ejaculated sperm and the supravital staining; the lowest figures were for the animals from the Piau breed (group 1). In relation to the testicular biometrics, Duroc animals (group 4) had a greater scrotal width compared to the other groups. But when we assessed the intensity of pixels of the testicles, there was a difference between groups. The groups 2 (finishing animals), 3 (Pietrain) and 4 had no difference between themselves. Group 3 had greater pixel intensity in relation to group 1. Of the 26 animals studied, five showed an abnormality during ultrasound evaluation, like hydrocele, hyperechoic mass in the testicular parenchyma, cyst in the head of the epididymis and the presence of fluid in the head and tail of the epididymis. The various animal groups studied did not differ in the principal reproductive parameters evaluated, showing that despite the great variability of reproductive traits between breeds and within the same breed, the breeding soundness evaluation, the more complete it is, is essential for the selection of breeders and the ultrasonography of the reproductive system becomes an important addition in this examination.     

天然生胶杂质含量测量结果不确定度评定

根据GB/T 8086—2008规定的测定方法,分析了测定过程中的随机效应与系统效应,计算这两种效应对测定过程导致的不确定度和,最终对本方法所产生的不确定度给予综合评定。     

线性红利界下带干扰风险模型的破产概率

考虑到保险公司在实际经营中收益所具有的不确定性和分红策略，建立一类具有线性红利界和带随机扰动的双复合Poisson风险模型，利用鞅方法给出模型关于破产概率的一个定理及上界．     

四川攀西山区植烟土壤养分特征分析与肥力评价

了解土壤肥力对烟田土壤保育具有积极的指导意义。本研究采集了四川攀西山区4个代表性植烟县(区)的19个典型烟田耕层样品,测定了对烤烟产质量影响大且能反映土壤肥力的指标,利用模糊综合评价法计算了土壤肥力综合肥力指数(IFI)。结果表明：19个烟田耕层土壤的pH、有机质、全氮、碱解氮、有效磷、有效钾和水溶性氯含量平均值分别为6.25、21.6 g/kg、1.28 g/kg、120.61 mg/kg、42.84 mg/kg、148.69 mg/kg和7.47 mg/kg,适宜的植烟烟田比例分别为52.67%、26.32%、36.84%、42.11%、36.84%、84.21%和21.05%。烟田土壤肥力综合评价指数介于0.30～0.87,平均为0.55,总体上处于较高水平。施肥上应注意多施钾肥和磷肥并提高其利用率,对氯素低的烟田(<10 mg/kg)可以酌情施用氯肥。     

陕西市售液态牛奶中黄曲霉毒素M1污染水平分析及风险评估

【目的】全面评价陕西液态牛奶中黄曲霉毒素M_1(aflatoxin M_1,AFM_1)污染状况及其产生的健康风险。【方法】于2018年上半年在陕西全省范围内城市、县城及乡镇采集液态奶样本111份进行检测,结合中国居民营养与健康状况监测数据库中液态奶消费数据,对不同人群通过液态奶对AFM_1的摄入水平进行分析。采用联合国粮农组织/世界卫生组织食品添加剂联合专家委员会(JECFA)确立的AFM_1暴露引发肝癌风险公式和安全限值两种方法,分析描述相关健康风险。【结果】111份液态奶样本中95份检出AFM_1,但均未超过国家限量标准,平均含量为23.95 ng/kg。不同性别年龄组中,一般人群对AFM_1的平均摄入量为0.004～0.082 ng/(kg·d),肝癌风险为0.010～0.225例/(亿人·年),消费人群对AFM_1平均摄入量为0.041～0.272 ng/(kg·d),肝癌风险为0.113～0.745例/(亿人·年)。【结论】陕西液态牛奶中AFM_1污染引发的健康风险总体较低,但需对部分低年龄段(2～11岁)液态奶消费人群AFM_1膳食暴露引发的健康风险予以关注。